DataTrek Research has developed 4 scenarios in which the stock market could experience a downturn over the next 12 months. These include profit taking by investors, more robust price growth than expected, weakness in the U.S. labor market, and further increases in real interest rates.

If investors start taking profits and switch from IT stocks to less popular securities - such as financials or industrials - it could cause the stock market to crash by 5%, since technology companies make up about 30% of the S&P 500 index, DataTrek said. In the event of more stable inflation, the Fed would have to return to raising rates despite the threat of a U.S. recession - which would disappoint investors who, on the contrary, expect the regulator to ease policy and hope that a recession can be avoided.

Slowing job growth and falling consumer demand in the US would trigger a wave of layoffs at companies whose management would begin to fear a recession. A rise in real interest rates, which has so far had no impact on stock prices, may prompt investors to switch from the latter to bonds if their yields prove more competitive.