Experts expect recession in the U.S. within a year

The probability of recession in the U.S. over the next 12 months is 61%, showed the results of a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal among economists. Despite the fact that the figure has declined slightly from its October value of 63%, it is still a record high, writes The threat of recession is due to the fact that last year the Federal Reserve raised its key rate harshly in order to combat record inflation, which, contrary to its expectations, was not a short-lived phenomenon.

Most analysts (75%) do not expect the Fed to cope with rising prices by slightly slowing the U.S. economy. According to forecasts, inflation is not expected to approach the regulator's target of 2% before the end of 2024-at that time experts expect it to be 2.4%. According to Deutsche Bank, the regulator will continue to raise the interest rate that will sharply increase the unemployment rate in the United States and will trigger a recession. The high probability of the latter is signaled by a decline in the residential real estate industry and a slowdown in manufacturing activity, said EY-Parthenon senior economist Gregory Dako.