Apple & Amazon Analysis

Apple earnings preview: Apple (AAPL) is in line to report earnings on July 28 for a quarter that saw significant disruption from the COVID-related slowdowns in China. The latest read from analysts is that iPhone demand is holding up slightly better than expected, although the macro backdrop has tempered enthusiasm somewhat over the trajectory for a back half of the year that includes the iPhone 14 launch. Morgan Stanley thinks the Apple earnings call has added significance this quarter, with management's macro commentary likely to be relatively guarded. In the background, high-income consumer sentiment is flashing signs of caution and a strong U.S. dollar is causing Apple to hike prices in some international markets. That all adds up to the potential that FY23 consensus revenue and EPS marks may be too high. On a more positive note, Wedbush Securities reminds that Apple continues to focus on a robust product pipeline and services ramp into 2023. The 2023 product setup could be a reason to buy the dip in Apple if earnings disappoint.

Amazon earnings preview: Amazon (AMZN) will report earnings on July 28 to subdued expectations due to late-quarter F/X pressure and the impact of inflation. While a strong Prime Day event in July and solid recent reads on consumer spending are expected to support revenue guidance from the e-commerce giant, Jefferies warns that Q3 operating income outlook could be revised lower due to worsening inflation and tough comparables. The OI guidance cut is seen being the last guide-down and a potential clearing event for improving sentiment. JPMorgan named Amazon its top 12-month FANG stock and still sees $70B of 2023 profit potential from 3P, AWS and advertising that can be better realized as retail pricing normalizes and the logistics network is optimized. Even with estimates tightened, AMZN trading at 11.3X the 2023 EBITDA estimate is noted to be a discount to the historical average. Amazon's (AMZN) earnings report and guidance could impact a number of companies. Aterian (NASDAQ:ATER) generates 93% of its revenue from the e-commerce giant, while NovaBay Pharma (NBY) Plug Power (PLUG) both lean on AMZN for more than 40% of sales. Meanwhile, Netgear (NTGR) and Simply Good Foods (SMPL) have seen their shares prices move in tandem with Amazon 88% of the time in the week after earnings.