Who has more to lose – Exxon Mobil or Sakhalin-1?

Oil production at Sakhalin-1 decreased 22 times after the operator, represented by the U.S. ExxonMobil, withdrew its specialists. ExxonMobil had a 30% stake in the project. The rest is held by Japanese Sodeco (30%), Rosneft (20%) and Indian ONGC (20%).

Alexander Skavronsky, a financial analyst pointed out that Exxon Mobil was harshly critical of Joe Biden's policies in response to his letter in which the U.S. president lamented why U.S. oil companies do not increase production despite such a great stimulus as high gasoline prices in the U.S. economy. Exxon Mobil pointed out that Biden's economic policy was not predictable in terms of issuing permits to develop new fields in the U.S., nor did it encourage investment in oil production. Oil and gas remains the most underinvested sector in the U.S.

"Given this position of Exxon Mobil, its withdrawal from the Sakhalin-1 project looks even more obviously like a move made largely on the basis of the political and legal framework that Joe Biden has created in the United States. In Russia, there are no such difficulties that Exxon Mobil faces in the U.S.," says Alexander Skavronsky.

ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) is ready to expand its participation in the Sakhalin-1 project after ExxonMobil withdraws from it. "The general rule that will determine the development of the oil and gas industry in Russia in the near term is the replacement of some departing foreign investors by others," says the analyst. - "For Exxon Mobil, exiting Sakhalin-1 is a strategic loss."

The analyst thinks that now the investors should focus more on the companies' plans on implementation of new technologies rather than on destructive and newly established partnerships: "There is a place for development of different companies in the Russian oil industry. It is important to understand that any development, production, and refining of oil is not only a very capital-intensive production, but also something that pulls in the development and implementation of various innovations, which are usually associated with high-tech companies. Today's oil industry is a real driver of digital innovations, and its development in Russia will be very important for the economy. At the same time, for investors in the shares of the relevant companies it will be investments in both oil prospects and innovations," the expert argues.