Quotations of various asset classes in January lay much lower probability of recession compared with last fall, noted JP Morgan. While at that time it was in the 85% to 100% range, now it's not even hitting 50% in nine asset classes, the bank's research shows. Despite the fact that the percentage in the securities companies S & P 500 is higher (73%), as asset managers are more skeptical, it is markedly different from last year (98%), writes profinance.ru.
Investors are optimistic - they were encouraged by the departure of China from strict restrictive measures in connection with the pandemic, a sharp drop in gas prices in Europe, as well as a faster than expected decline in inflation in the U.S.. Oleg Syrovatkin, a senior analyst at Otkritie Investments Research, expects the Fed to start cutting rates soon, contrary to its rhetoric. However, economists and asset managers have a different view on the economic situation - unlike players, they do not see a decline, but rather an increased risk of recession. As Bloomberg surveys show, experts put it at 50% in the fall and 65% in January.