Financial market players see a decrease in recession risks, while economists see an increase in recession risks

Quotations of various asset classes in January lay much lower probability of recession compared with last fall, noted JP Morgan. While at that time it was in the 85% to 100% range, now it's not even hitting 50% in nine asset classes, the bank's research shows. Despite the fact that the percentage in the securities companies S & P 500 is higher (73%), as asset managers are more skeptical, it is markedly different from last year (98%), writes

Investors are optimistic - they were encouraged by the departure of China from strict restrictive measures in connection with the pandemic, a sharp drop in gas prices in Europe, as well as a faster than expected decline in inflation in the U.S.. Oleg Syrovatkin, a senior analyst at Otkritie Investments Research, expects the Fed to start cutting rates soon, contrary to its rhetoric. However, economists and asset managers have a different view on the economic situation - unlike players, they do not see a decline, but rather an increased risk of recession. As Bloomberg surveys show, experts put it at 50% in the fall and 65% in January.